The Atlantic Current, Ep. 31: Oh, Sh--, Tull Was Right
A week of concerning news proves Tull correct — which makes no one happy
This episode wasn’t supposed to be about Tull’s predictions playing out — but there’s no other choice. Whether it’s energy prices, the global economy, turmoil in the White House, or crazy trading in prediction markets, the pessimistic view gained steam this week. With no shortage of (often dark) humor, Tull and Vince discuss how it happened and where the US and world can go from here.
Episode Links:
CERAWeek Coverage
Here’s Politico on the appearance of Secretary of Energy Chris Wright at CERAWeek. An excellent and well-researched piece from Bloomberg on the potential worldwide impact of the ongoing closure (to most tankers, anyway) of the Strait of Hormuz.
And via Politico again, a quote from an unnamed industry executive which gets to exactly the point Vince detailed at length in this episode:
[Treasury Secretary Scott] Bessent says oil prices will fall in a few months. It takes several months to stand up a rig and drill from scratch. Why would I expand my drilling campaign now if prices will fall?
The Firings Will Continue Until Morale Improves
While Pam Bondi was dismissed while Tull and Vince were recording this episode, another firing was announced. Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth fired the Army Chief of Staff, Gen. Randy George. Multiple reports suggest that a core reason for the dismissal was a frosty relationship, driven in part by George’s refusal to block the promotions of four one-star generals. Two of the generals are black, and two are women.
The Washington Post is reporting that two other senior officers are being removed, including the head of the Army’s chaplain corps. Within hours, it seems at least possible that, as Tull and Vince speculated, there will be a good number of personnel changes in and around the Administration following the departures of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem.
Vince On “Drill, Baby, Drill”
Here is Vince’s piece from last May on the inherent flaw in the “Drill, Baby, Drill” philosophy.
Part I includes a more detailed discussion of the recent history of U.S. oil and gas, along with some fun personal anecdotes from his visits to the sites of the oil boom (including Williston, North Dakota, where at one point rental prices were higher than those of San Francisco or New York).
Tull On Polymarket Bets In Ireland
Here is Tull’s piece on Polymarket action on Irish elections, including the six figures spent on Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch:
Here’s the current Polymarket market for the Dublin-Central by-election if readers want to see for themselves.
Update: Episode 16, Sport, Part II: GAA, College Insanity, And Tears In The Pub
In Episode 16 (Apple, Spotify), Tull discussed a number of players who have moved from Ireland’s GAA (Gaelic Athletic Association) to America’s NFL (National Football League). The current players have been kickers, who (as the name suggests) specialize solely in plays where the football is kicked (field goals and punts) and don’t actually play in the field.
That may change, however. Video of an Irish rugby player, Neff Giwa, sparked “a recruiting frenzy” among college football coaches in the States. Giwa, a 20-year-old who stands 6-foot-7 and weighs just shy of 300 pounds, has agreed to attend the University of South Carolina on a football scholarship. South Carolina is a strong program, albeit not (at the moment) a premier one.
But Giwa did receive offers from top-tier colleges (including the University of Miami, which played in last year’s national championship game, losing to the University of Indiana). And he does at least have a chance to parlay playing time at the university level into a potential professional career. The last Irish-born non-kicker/punter in the NFL was County Wexford man John Sinnott, who played for the then-Baltimore Colts for a single season in 1982.
Vince’s Money Quotes
On the Trump Pressure Index from Deutsche Bank and Trump’s ongoing attempts to calm investors:
You don’t need an index. You just need the line of the S&P 500. I think he’s very focused on that. I think he really thinks if that line starts turning south, he’s in big trouble because that line, I think to him, is almost a reflection of his political capital. It’s a reflection of the patience the American people have to put up with what they’re have to put up with for this.
On the effect of Iran on JD Vance’s political career:
There is a — I was going to say a dark irony, you could also say a fun irony — to the fact that his one deeply held principle might be the one that ruins his political career. It’s not all the craven ass kissing bullsh— that he did over culture wars and stuff. It’s the thing he actually cared about that might tank him.
Tull’s Money Quotes
On “Drill, Baby, Drill”:
But that slogan assumes there’s a big red lever somewhere in Houston or Oklahoma and you can pull it and hey presto, the oil gushes, the gas flows and freedom’s on the march.
On JD Vance’s dimming political prospects:
He can’t put enough distance between himself and Trump now because he’s damaged goods now for any run after Trump, isn’t he, in 2028?…”forever wars, forever wars” — that’ll be whispered in his ear wherever he goes, you know, like George Bush and ‘no new taxes’.